Revelations that German military equipment, including the Leopard 2 main battle tank (MBT), may not be faring well in the Ukraine-Russia war, has raised the spectre of drone proliferation and a purported weakness of heavy armour against uncrewed swarming tactics.
Ukraine has received vast numbers of MBTs from its Western backers, with the Leopard 2 series among the most common to be handed over. However, the emergence of small attack drones has reignited an age-old debate: are tanks obsolete?
Amid widespread media reporting in April, citing classified documents from German diplomatic sources obtained by Germany’s Der Speigel, the performances of systems such as the Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2A5 tanks on the battlefields of Ukraine have come under serious scrutiny.
The Leopard 2 tanks, as with many armoured platforms operated by Ukrainian and Russian forces, have proved vulnerable to the vast numbers of FPV drones and one-way attack munitions that have become the most lethal capability fielded across the frontline.
Such is their vulnerability, the Leopard 2 has been consigned, according to reports, to a pseudo artillery role, lobbing high explosive shells towards enemy positions, lest they be found and hunted down by roving bands of hunter-killer drones.
Earlier, in February, Ukraine claimed its 10,000th Russian tank destroyed since February 2022, a landmark in a war that has seen the evolution of new threats, with drones now the most lethal capability across the battlefields.
While it is unknown how many of these have been caused by drones, social media coverage indicates a widespread use of such system against Russian armour, and their notable efficacy. Entire units have been formed to provide drone attack capability in Ukraine.
MBTs vs drones: angle of attack
While an armoured vehicle, like a tank, can position and angle its armour based on the most probable angles of attack from anti-armour munitions, the agility of a FPV drone with an anti-tank mine strapped to it means weaknesses can be found and exploited.
Commonly, this will see drones target engine decks to immobilise the vehicle, or areas where armour is less concentrated, such as on the top-facing sections of the hull and turret. Open hatches are also a favourite, as seen in numerous social media videos.
“Almost all MBTs be they Western or Russian remain greatly vulnerable to FPV drones and are now more or less obsolete in current form. Even with APS they may not be able to fully be able to defend themselves as APS, in current form, may not be able to adequately protect them,” said Abhijit Apsingikar, defence analyst at GlobalData.
Apsingikar added that APS, or active protections systems, which function by detonating a shaped charge in the direction of the incoming munition, could evolve into “something similar to a miniature CIWS capable of all-aspect defence”, although such advances were yet to be seen.
The concept of what an MBT is could also change, as future platforms may shift from the current concept of a heavily armoured and armed platform intended to protect the crew to enable them to fight, to a new form.
There is doubtless a consideration towards potentially removing the crew from the future MBT, or operating in a networked, crewed/uncrewed structure, similar to concepts of operations being developed in the air domain.
MBTs vs drones: is APS enough?
In addition, the tactical ability of the MBT operators is also a factor when determining if tanks are losing the battle against drones, and finding their place in in the order of battle diminished.
While Western tanks donated to Ukraine are sustaining significant losses, how such platforms might be utilized by a European or US force with greater control over the electromagnetic spectrum and, potentially, air superiority, should be considered.
One source told Army Technology that while many countries were behind the “behind the curve” when it came to defence against drone threats in relation to armoured vehicles, existing combat proven APS could still be effective.
However, there was still some thought given to APS-equipped MBTs being saturated by drone swarm attacks.
Developmental technologies, such as lasers directed energy weapon systems, were considered too immature at this stage to determine their use by armour against drone swarms.
Warning: The following social media clip posted by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence contains apparent operational footage of MBTs in combat.
Other methods are also being explored by Western countries, with the UK recently publicly stating that it was looking at the installation of ‘cope cages’ on its in-service Challenger 2 MBTs in order to defeat small drones.
The debate over the death of the tank will continue, with supporters on both sides able to point to kill ratios and countermeasures to back up their argument. What is not in questions is the impact that drone proliferation is having on the battlefield, effectively changing the paradigm of land warfare.
How MBT operators choose to counter this threat, either through speed, stealth, armour, or countermeasures, will be closely analysed to ensure heavy armour can remain a viable capability in the years ahead.
