After more than three-and-a-half years of high intensity combat between Ukraine and Russia, following Moscow’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of its neighbour, the prospect of the two sides reaching a ceasefire could be in reach.
Recent diplomatic interventions by the US, with President Donald Trump seemingly irritated by the inability to force a peace deal and directing unexpected ire at Moscow, have culminated in the threatening of a package of economic sanctions on Russia should a ceasefire not be agreed.
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Washington has also announced plans to levy an existing tariff on India as Delhi continues to purchase Russian oil.
Commenting on President Trump’s decision to double tariffs on India to 50%, Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, said that policy was “increasingly being used as a geopolitical tool”.
The US envoy to Russia, Steve Witkoff, also conducted a one-to-one meeting with President Putin on 6 August, doubtless conveying messages from Washington.
Speaking on 6 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his daily address said that he had spoken with President Trump, outlined a “clear and transparent” position that the ongoing war should end.
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By GlobalData“It must be done honestly, it is very important to do it honestly,” Zelenskyy said, claiming that Russia was now “more inclined” towards a ceasefire.
However, Zelenskyy added it was key to ensure that Russia “don’t deceive anyone in the details – neither us, nor the United States.”
Earlier in August, the US approved the Foreign Military Sale of military equipment to Ukraine valued at more than $200m, which will be funded by Ukraine partner countries, rather than by Kyiv or provided as a donation by Washington.
The bulk of the funding was committed to equipment, repairs, and technical support for M777 howitzers, a 155mm artillery system provide in large numbers to Ukrainian forces, and capable of firing at ranges in excess of 24km.
State of play: Ukraine–Russia war
Russia continues operations across much of the frontline in eastern Ukraine, described as making “incremental gains” in the Donbass region by the UK Ministry of Defence on 5 August, particularly around the cities of Pokrovsk and Myroluibivka. Russian ground forces are also advancing on the village of Rodynske.
Both Ukraine and the UK claim that Russia has sustained more than one million combat casualties in the war, with London stating more than Russian military casualties in 2025 was in excess of 260,000 personnel.
The timing of a Russian ceasefire could coincide with the coming winter season, as fighting usually, but not always, reduces somewhat as temperature and weather conditions deteriorate.
In this scenario, Russia could seek to exploit the remaining two or three months of summer and autumn to take key cities such as Pokrovsk to ensure it is in the strongest position possible for any negotiated peace settlement.
