Kenya’s cumulative defence expenditure is expected to reach $8.5bn during 2017-2021, according to a report by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI).

Titled, ‘Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2021’, the report forecasts Kenya’s cumulative capital expenditure to increase to $1.5bn over 2017-2021.

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The key areas of expenditure over the forecast period are expected to be armoured vehicles, as well as chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence (CBRN) detection devices, unmanned aircraft, helicopters and surveillance equipment.

“The country’s defence budget during 2012-2016 was stimulated by the procurement of armoured vehicles, aircraft and helicopters, small arms and rocket launchers.”

While the country dedicated 16.1% of the total budget to the defence sector during the historic period, the allocation is estimated to grow to 17.8% on average during the forecast period.

The country’s defence budget during 2012-2016 was stimulated by the procurement of armoured vehicles, aircraft and helicopters, small arms and rocket launchers, increasing from $1bn in 2012 to $1.2bn in 2015, at a CAGR of 5.48%.

The defence budget is forecast to grow further at a CAGR of 11.46% to reach $2.1bn in 2021, driven by military modernisation, involvement in peacekeeping operations, and counter-terrorism.

SDI also estimates Kenya’s homeland security expenditure to double from $1.4bn in 2016 to $2.8bn by the end of the forecast period, growing at a CAGR of 17.92%. The country’s police force has commissioned 30 light armoured vehicles to improve its counter-terrorism and peacekeeping missions.

Kenya is also expected to invest in the procurement of CCTV cameras, electronic identification systems and automated border control solutions to broaden its surveillance and intelligence gathering capability, adds the report.