At an edge of the free world, nations are withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty, also known as the Mine Ban Treaty. Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) will no longer be subject to the agreement which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines. Russia has already deployed land mines in its war against Ukraine and holds the world’s largest stockpile of anti-personnel mines. While land mines present a danger to children and travellers, Nato Allies in the east see the utility in their usage at the borders with Russia and Belarus given Russia’s war of aggression in nearby Ukraine. Experts expect that more than 2,000 miles of land mines could be placed along these borders with extra care taken near the Suwalki Gap, the Polish-Lithuanian border situated between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Despite a show of support from their other Nato Allies, it may take some time until these countries are able to purchase and deploy anti-personnel land mines, as few countries friendly to Nato Allies make such weapons at scale. The most likely source for their production will be domestic, as most friendly nations remain subject to the restrictions of the Ottawa Treaty. Representatives from the Polish Government have said that state-run defence group PGZ will be involved in the manufacturing of one million anti-personnel mines and the Finnish company Insta has expressed interest in exporting anti-personnel lines to other parts of Europe. It will take time to set up the supply chains for this weaponry, as factories will need to be built or converted.
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Lithuania plans to allocate about €800m ($937m) for the procurement of land mines, including anti-tank mines. This investment comes alongside Lithuania’s participation in the Baltic Defense Line, which is a collaboration between the three Baltic states to secure their borders against foreign invasion with the use of bunkers, anti-tank ditches, M142 HIMARS, dragon’s teeth, anti-tank hedgehogs, and razor wire.
South Korea does not currently produce anti-personnel mines but does maintain a stockpile of several hundred thousand. While Korea may prefer to maintain its stockpile given its tensions with North Korea, there may exist a business opportunity given that Poland and South Korea already maintain a close defense procurement relationship. Poland has already ordered 48 FA-50 fighter aircraft, 218 Chunmoo MLRS systems, 364 K9 self-propelled howitzers, and 200 K2 main battle tanks – accompanied by plans to build further hundreds at new factories in Poland itself (for a total of 820 K2). All told, this order book totals around $22bn, but if Poland and Korea could pursue a partnership on anti-personnel mines, this figure could rise even higher.
In today’s world, anti-personnel mines come with new features that enhance relative safety for civilians. It will be possible for states to procure mines that can be remotely activated in the case of a crisis, meaning that those living on mined land can travel with relative ease. Moreover, international law requires that the placement of land mines is accurately recorded to aid with removal after a conflict ends.
Relatedly, in the near future, none of the nations withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty will be subject to the Convention on Cluster Munitions either. Only Lithuania was a signatory of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, and it has now withdrawn from this agreement as well. While they may have to compete with Ukraine for stockpiles, these states should have easier access to cluster munitions supply chains because these weapons are currently produced across the Nato Alliance. The Biden administration hesitated to allow cluster bomb use in Ukraine, in part because they do not always detonate on impact and thus act as unmarked land mines until they are removed.
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