- Hezbollah finally acted on 1 March after seeing its backers in Tehran hammered by US and Israeli air strikes
- The death of the head of the Islamic Republic regime in Tehran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could have been a key factor
- The Shia Islamist paramilitary force has been trying to replenish its forces after intense combat operations in recent years
The entry of Hezbollah into the growing crisis in the Middle East could further destabilise a region already reeling from 72 hours of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Tehran’s subsequent response.
After an uncertain delay, the Iran-backed paramilitary force fired rockets into Israel on 1 March, to which the Israel Defence Forces immediately responded with air strikes into Lebanon, which have continued through the day of 2 March.
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Hezbollah holds sway over vast areas of Lebanon, including certain districts in the capital of Beirut, and has been attempting to replenish its stockpiles and recover from serious losses during combat against the IDF over the past 24 months.
Following US and Israeli air and missile strikes at key military and command elements of the Islamic Republic regime in Tehran, Iran embarked on 48 hours of widespread missile and drone attacks across the Middle East.
Chaos has followed as Iranian drones and missiles have struck Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. The UK also reported that Iran struck British military sites in Cyprus.
Last week, Israel sent warnings to Lebanon that civilian infrastructure may be targeted, including Beirut airport in case Hezbollah joins Iran as a second front in the regional conflict.
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By GlobalDataHezbollah said that a red line that would trigger it joining the conflict would be the death of Khamenei.
However, Hezbollah’s delayed entry into the wider conflict could have been attributed to a number of factors, suggested Sarit Zehavi, president of the Alma Research and Education Center, and a former officer in the IDF’s Military Intelligence Corps, in a 2 March briefing organised by the Jerusalem Press Club.
“It took a while for Iran to give the order. [It was] a combination of interests and religious motivation; if [based on] interests, Hezbollah would not want to be involved,” said Zehavi.
Zehavi said that after Hezbollah joined Hamas in attacks against Israel after the bloody 7 October 2023 incursion from the Gaza Strip, the paramilitary force had lost around 80% of its military capability.
Hezbollah maintains a stockpile of around 25,000 rockets and more than 1,000 drones and has been attempting to replenish its capabilities through in-country manufacture and smuggling from Iran through Syria.
However, it was thought Israel is unlikely to seek to conduct ground operations into southern Lebanon as it did through 2024, with the IDF currently stretched as it conducts an intense series of strikes over Iran, while balancing the ongoing post-war operations in the Gaza Strip.
“I don’t see why Israel would want more land, just to have more land and keep soldiers busy,” Zehavi said.
Middle East crisis: what about UNIFIL?
Little has been heard from UNIFIL, the UN mission to Lebanon, since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East at the end of February.
When asked by Army Technology whether the IDF might liaise with UNIFIL on helping to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon, Zehavi was scornful of the UN force, stating that it had previously “damaged” Israel’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
“[UNIFIL] were shooting at our drones, they never opening fire at Hezbollah drones, never initiated a search for weapons [in Lebanon],” Zehavi said, referring to a 2025 incident where UN forces in Lebanon shot down an IDF drone.
Just prior to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, UNIFIL issued a series of press releases detailing that it had delivered more than 30 vehicles to the Lebanese security forces and handed over legacy minefields that had been cleared of munitions.
