GlobalData  has updated its risk of transmission forecast model using the most recent historical Covid-19 data from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Database and the World Health Organization (WHO)’s Covid-19 situation reports.

Based on the model, Italy appears to have reached a plateau in the number of new cases of Covid-19 in the past week, but the US and the UK have yet to reach the peak.  GlobalData estimates that it will take an additional one to two-months of continued strict social distancing efforts post-peak before new cases will decrease to near zero in each of these three countries.

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